Scenario Development course will give a good starting point to consider using scenarios for policy making, knowledge management, strategies and common understanding between different stakeholders.
This course will give an understanding of existing techniques for scenario development providing with tools to manage and apply scenarios, clearly see the difference between the methods and identify the drivers of change; improve lateral and structural thinking, consider strategies from a wider and comprehensive perspective empowering with an understanding of possible unintended consequences.
Aim and Syllabus
1. Background information (Introduction, definitions and history).
2. Scenario Methods.
- Why use Scenario methods?
- What are the methods?
- Visions, Projections, Pathway Scenarios, Alternatives.
- Why use Scenario methods?
3. Small Group Role-Playing Exercise with Vision and Projection Scenarios.
4. How Scenario Methods can be developed and Used (practice sessions, Field Exercise, etc.)
5 Facilitation and Communication Skills.
6. Participatory methods for Future Scenarios (workshops)
7. Why Scenario Planning Projects can fail, common pitfalls
Course objectives:
Provide introduction and examples of Scenario Planning; involve the participants by techniques such as role play and games.
The course begins by exploring the theories of applied creativity, thus offering a foundation for the qualitative tools used in future studies to imagine difference (creating a change), and to envision the preferred.
Learning activities (role-plays) include forecasting and backcasting scenarios, charting trends and breaks in trends, and mapping the contribution of the main actors and stakeholders. Students should find out what the present situation is, how past development led up to this point, and what extrapolations (or/and experts) say about the future. The role-play is motivated y the shared aim of making scenarios plausible and encouraged by the interactive structure of the scenario method. The emphasis throughout the whole process is put on interaction and through this interaction, knowledge construction.
Role-Play:
Day 1:
Analysis, brainstorming in groups, investigating trends and choosing driving forces.
Students should find, discuss and check future visions for the “Energy 2050” from a wide variety of sources (literature search, databases, etc.). They are supposed to distil a number of trends from these visions. They look for the driving forces underlying the trends they foresee.
Day II.
Forming a scenario template; develop the scenarios.
Students choose as scenario axes two driving forces with high impact and high uncertainty; these form the scenario template and 3 scenarios. These scenarios should be developed in groups.
Day III
Present the scenarios. Reflections and policy recommendations.
Students reflect on what the most likely, most desirable, and worst case scenario is. They formulate policy recommendations to avoid the worst case scenario. They decide what the most likely and the most desirable scenarios are for the “Energy 2050”, how they will develop over time and what recommendations they can make to contribute to the desired future.
Discussion: the opponent (another group) should evaluate the scenarios of the given group and present the results in a way of arguments.
Language of the course — English.
Tutor of the course:
T. Spitsyna, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology