Behavioral aspects of macroeconomic and financial forecasting
The goal of this brief course is to give you a scene of behavioral economics and its applications to economics and financial forecasting. The course would be case based and highly practical. We will start with behavioral economics by searching for the answer to the ultimate question: are we all rational, irrational, or both? Then, we turn to the next question: what should we know about real humans, when trying to forecast their behavior. However, knowing what to expect from others is only a third of what behavioral economics can give you to make your forecast-based decisions better. Other two thirds are “what mistakes you will make during the process of forecast-making?” and “what mistakes you will make using this forecast in the real life situations?”. Naturally, I will give you a few hints on how to avoid those mistakes.
Prerequisites: Macroeconomics 101 (what is fiscal multiplier, etc)
Mr. Pavlo Illashenko
Place of employment: Strategist and Portfolio Manager at “KINTO” Asset Management.